The Long-term Impact of Tangshan Earthquake on the Local Economy Growth

Seminar | May 12, 2017 | 2:30-3:30 p.m. | No.106B room in Zhonghui Building

Reporter: ZHAO Guo-chang
Sponsor: Economical and Social Research In statute

ABOUT ZHAO GUOCHANG
Zhao Guochang is the doctor of economics, graduated from Australia National University in 2013, now is an associate professor of economics at Southwest University of Finance and Economics. His main researches include labor economics, educational economics, applied econometrics and so on, many of his articles have been published on the magazines like the Scandinavian Journal of Economics, China Economic Review, Economics (Quarterly), and Statistical Studies.

ABOUT THE LECTURE
Using the 1952-2000 provincial panel data of China and a counterfactual approach developed by Hsiao et al. (2012), we evaluate the long-term impact of Tangshan earthquake on the local economy growth. We find that Tangshan earthquake and the re-construction has a long-term, persistent and positive effect on the local economy growth. We also find that the amount of investment in Tangshan (and Hebei) after earthquake cannot totally explain the local economy growth. Finally, Tangshan (and Hebei) after earthquake only significantly affects the industrial sector, while has little or trivial effects on the primary and tertiary sectors –this is consistent with the historical documents. This study, on the one hand, reflects the creative destruction mechanism, on the other hand, also indicates the chance of the higher economy growth path.